AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines. This c

AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines.

This cognitive mismatch explains why even experienced professionals consistently underestimate the pace and impact of AI.

Let’s break it down:

1. The actual growth rate of AI models

According to the Stanford AI Index 2025, the number of parameters in leading AI models grew from 10² to 10¹² between 2003 and 2023.

That’s a 3.16× increase every year — or 1000× every 8 years.

These systems aren’t just improving. They’re scaling at a rate our intuition simply can’t keep up with.

2. What psychology tells us about perception

A classic study by Wagenaar & Sagaria (1975), Misperception of Exponential Growth, tested this cognitive bias directly.

Participants were shown the first 5 values of an exponential sequence:
3 → 7 → 20 → 55 → 148 (representing years 1970 to 1974),
and were then asked to estimate the value for the year 1979 — five years later.

The correct answer was 25,165.
The average estimates ranged from 2,000 to 5,000 — off by a factor of 5 to 10×.

But here’s the critical part:
Even after being explicitly told that the sequence was exponential, participants still failed to accurately predict the future value in follow-up trials.

People continued to apply linear or quadratic intuition, severely underestimating the true rate of change — even when they knew it was exponential.

This suggests that the problem isn’t lack of information.
It’s that our brains aren’t built to feel exponential growth — even when we understand it.

People instinctively extrapolated linearly or quadratically — not exponentially — and dramatically underestimated future values.

By year 5, a linear forecast already falls far behind reality. And yet, many still plan as if progress will continue to think in smooth, incremental steps.

The pace of AI isn’t intuitive.
It’s exponential — and our everyday lives give us almost no practice in recognizing that kind of growth.

Just think about it... when was the last time you truly witnessed exponential growth in real life?
And are you sure your intuition is ready for what’s coming?

Sources:
1. Stanford AI Index Report 2025 – Chapter 1: Research & Development.
https://lnkd.in/dRE5xiXJ

2. Wagenaar, W. A., & Sagaria, S. D. (1975). Misperception of exponential growth. Cognitive Psychology. https://lnkd.in/dMZC7dVv