AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines. This c

AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines.

This cognitive mismatch explains why even experienced professionals consistently underestimate the pace and impact of AI.

Let’s break it down:

1. The actual growth rate of AI models

According to the Stanford AI Index 2025, the number of parameters in leading AI models grew from 10² to 10¹² between 2003 and 2023.

That’s a 3.16× increase every year — or 1000× every 8 years.

These systems aren’t just improving. They’re scaling at a rate our intuition simply can’t keep up with.

2. What psychology tells us about perception

A classic study by Wagenaar & Sagaria (1975), Misperception of Exponential Growth, tested this cognitive bias directly.