AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines. This c

These systems aren’t just improving. They’re scaling at a rate our intuition simply can’t keep up with.

2. What psychology tells us about perception

A classic study by Wagenaar & Sagaria (1975), Misperception of Exponential Growth, tested this cognitive bias directly.

Participants were shown the first 5 values of an exponential sequence:
3 → 7 → 20 → 55 → 148 (representing years 1970 to 1974),
and were then asked to estimate the value for the year 1979 — five years later.

The correct answer was 25,165.
The average estimates ranged from 2,000 to 5,000 — off by a factor of 5 to 10×.

But here’s the critical part:
Even after being explicitly told that the sequence was exponential, participants still failed to accurately predict the future value in follow-up trials.

People continued to apply linear or quadratic intuition, severely underestimating the true rate of change — even when they knew it was exponential.

This suggests that the problem isn’t lack of information.
It’s that our brains aren’t built to feel exponential growth — even when we understand it.

People instinctively extrapolated linearly or quadratically — not exponentially — and dramatically underestimated future values.

By year 5, a linear forecast already falls far behind reality. And yet, many still plan as if progress will continue to think in smooth, incremental steps.