AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines. This c

The correct answer was 25,165.
The average estimates ranged from 2,000 to 5,000 — off by a factor of 5 to 10×.

But here’s the critical part:
Even after being explicitly told that the sequence was exponential, participants still failed to accurately predict the future value in follow-up trials.

People continued to apply linear or quadratic intuition, severely underestimating the true rate of change — even when they knew it was exponential.

This suggests that the problem isn’t lack of information.
It’s that our brains aren’t built to feel exponential growth — even when we understand it.

People instinctively extrapolated linearly or quadratically — not exponentially — and dramatically underestimated future values.

By year 5, a linear forecast already falls far behind reality. And yet, many still plan as if progress will continue to think in smooth, incremental steps.

The pace of AI isn’t intuitive.
It’s exponential — and our everyday lives give us almost no practice in recognizing that kind of growth.

Just think about it... when was the last time you truly witnessed exponential growth in real life?
And are you sure your intuition is ready for what’s coming?

Sources:
1. Stanford AI Index Report 2025 – Chapter 1: Research & Development.
https://lnkd.in/dRE5xiXJ

2. Wagenaar, W. A., & Sagaria, S. D. (1975). Misperception of exponential growth. Cognitive Psychology. https://lnkd.in/dMZC7dVv