AI is growing exponentially — but we’re wired to think in straight lines. This c

People instinctively extrapolated linearly or quadratically — not exponentially — and dramatically underestimated future values.

By year 5, a linear forecast already falls far behind reality. And yet, many still plan as if progress will continue to think in smooth, incremental steps.

The pace of AI isn’t intuitive.
It’s exponential — and our everyday lives give us almost no practice in recognizing that kind of growth.

Just think about it... when was the last time you truly witnessed exponential growth in real life?
And are you sure your intuition is ready for what’s coming?

Sources:
1. Stanford AI Index Report 2025 – Chapter 1: Research & Development.
https://lnkd.in/dRE5xiXJ

2. Wagenaar, W. A., & Sagaria, S. D. (1975). Misperception of exponential growth. Cognitive Psychology. https://lnkd.in/dMZC7dVv